Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.3%
Benfica
12.1%
Draw
4.6%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.80
Benfica
vs
0.56
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS40.4%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.585.1%
Over 2.565.2%
Over 3.543.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.7%
3-0
12.8%
1-0
9.4%
4-0
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
3-1
7.1%
1-1
5.8%
5-0
5.0%
4-1
5.0%
0-0
3.8%
5-1
2.8%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).