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25 Aug 2023 · 18:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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28.4%
Las Palmas
26.5%
Draw
45.1%
Sociedad

Expected Goals (xG)

1.14

Las Palmas

vs
1.50

Sociedad

Markets

BTTS53.3%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.6%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.2%
0-2
8.0%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
4.6%
1-3
4.6%
0-3
4.0%
3-1
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).