Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.8%
Spal
32.7%
Draw
31.5%
Sudtirol
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Spal
vs
1.00
Sudtirol
Markets
BTTS43.2%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.563.0%
Over 2.534.7%
Over 3.515.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.8%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
11.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
2.6%
3-0
2.6%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).