Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.2%
Southampton
20.5%
Draw
70.3%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68
Southampton
vs
2.17
Brighton
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.578.9%
Over 2.554.3%
Over 3.532.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.6%
0-1
11.3%
0-3
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
7.0%
1-3
6.7%
0-4
5.3%
1-4
3.6%
2-2
3.2%
2-1
2.9%
1-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).