Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.4%
Birmingham
29.7%
Draw
29.9%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Birmingham
vs
1.09
Watford
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.522.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.2%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).