Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.6%
Swindon
25.4%
Draw
27.0%
Accrington
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Swindon
vs
1.02
Accrington
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.545.1%
Over 3.523.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.4%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).