Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.7%
Luton
23.9%
Draw
21.4%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Luton
vs
0.83
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS42.9%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.6%
2-0
11.1%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.9%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.3%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).