Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.0%
Sp Braga
17.5%
Draw
9.5%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.42
Sp Braga
vs
0.78
Nacional
Markets
BTTS49.8%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.561.8%
Over 3.539.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.0%
3-0
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.8%
0-0
4.7%
4-1
4.5%
2-2
3.6%
1-2
3.0%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).