Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.4%
Boulogne
30.2%
Draw
28.3%
Bastia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03
Boulogne
vs
0.79
Bastia
Markets
BTTS33.9%
Over 0.584.8%
Over 1.553.1%
Over 2.527.4%
Over 3.511.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.8%
0-0
15.2%
0-1
13.9%
1-1
12.1%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
5.2%
0-2
5.0%
3-0
2.9%
2-2
2.7%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).