Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.8%
Setubal
26.6%
Draw
32.6%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Setubal
vs
1.10
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
1-0
12.5%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).