Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.0%
Luton
32.3%
Draw
40.7%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
0.88
Luton
vs
1.14
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS40.7%
Over 0.585.7%
Over 1.560.8%
Over 2.532.8%
Over 3.514.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
14.3%
1-1
14.3%
0-1
14.2%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
8.6%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
5.8%
2-0
5.1%
2-2
3.3%
0-3
3.3%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).