Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.2%
Cheltenham
22.1%
Draw
52.7%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Cheltenham
vs
1.82
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS57.8%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.579.8%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.535.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.4%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.3%
1-3
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
0-3
5.0%
0-0
4.5%
2-3
3.5%
2-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).