Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.1%
Aston Villa
17.2%
Draw
6.7%
Leicester
Expected Goals (xG)
2.41
Aston Villa
vs
0.62
Leicester
Markets
BTTS43.0%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.558.3%
Over 3.535.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.0%
3-0
11.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.0%
4-0
6.8%
0-0
5.8%
4-1
4.2%
5-0
3.3%
2-2
2.7%
1-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).