Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.8%
Cardiff
31.0%
Draw
41.2%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97
Cardiff
vs
1.24
Stoke
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.537.9%
Over 3.518.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.5%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
9.6%
0-2
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
5.2%
2-2
4.0%
0-3
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
3-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).