Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.0%
Casa Pia
22.4%
Draw
24.6%
Rio Ave
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Casa Pia
vs
1.13
Rio Ave
Markets
BTTS55.7%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.578.1%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-0
5.1%
0-0
5.0%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).