Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.4%
Arouca
23.6%
Draw
22.0%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64
Arouca
vs
0.94
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.572.3%
Over 2.547.6%
Over 3.525.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.0%
1-1
11.2%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
7.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.3%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).