Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.7%
Newcastle
27.5%
Draw
40.8%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Newcastle
vs
1.58
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS61.0%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.581.1%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.534.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
5.6%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.7%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).