Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.7%
Toulouse
21.9%
Draw
38.4%
Marseille
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Toulouse
vs
1.71
Marseille
Markets
BTTS67.4%
Over 0.597.1%
Over 1.585.7%
Over 2.567.1%
Over 3.545.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
1-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
2-0
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
4.6%
3-2
4.1%
2-3
4.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).