Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.1%
Malaga
22.7%
Draw
18.3%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.80
Malaga
vs
0.88
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS48.9%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.4%
2-0
11.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
6.7%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.3%
4-0
3.0%
0-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).