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12 Mar 2024 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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25.7%
Carlisle
19.1%
Draw
55.2%
Barnsley

Expected Goals (xG)

1.43

Carlisle

vs
2.18

Barnsley

Markets

BTTS66.8%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.586.8%
Over 2.569.9%
Over 3.548.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.2%
1-1
7.7%
1-3
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
2-1
6.0%
2-3
4.8%
0-3
4.7%
1-0
4.6%
1-4
3.6%
3-2
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).