Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.3%
Fiorentina
27.9%
Draw
24.8%
Parma
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Fiorentina
vs
0.87
Parma
Markets
BTTS42.2%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.563.9%
Over 2.537.2%
Over 3.517.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
1-1
12.6%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
10.0%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.2%
3-1
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).