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27 Feb 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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44.8%
Leicester
31.9%
Draw
23.3%
Norwich

Expected Goals (xG)

1.31

Leicester

vs
0.88

Norwich

Markets

BTTS44.5%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.537.5%
Over 3.517.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.0%
1-0
12.9%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
4.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
1.7%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).