Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →3.2%
Watford
12.0%
Draw
84.8%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.46
Watford
vs
2.81
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS35.6%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.584.5%
Over 2.563.5%
Over 3.541.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
14.9%
0-3
14.0%
0-1
10.0%
0-4
9.8%
1-2
6.9%
1-3
6.5%
1-1
5.6%
0-5
5.5%
1-4
4.6%
0-0
4.5%
1-5
2.6%
2-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).