Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.0%
Chesterfield
18.0%
Draw
15.1%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.26
Chesterfield
vs
0.96
Newport County
Markets
BTTS54.9%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.582.7%
Over 2.562.3%
Over 3.540.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.4%
1-1
8.3%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
7.4%
2-2
4.7%
4-0
4.3%
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.2%
4-1
4.2%
0-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).