Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.4%
Bournemouth
26.6%
Draw
45.0%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Bournemouth
vs
1.71
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS61.9%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.582.3%
Over 2.558.7%
Over 3.536.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
7.0%
0-1
6.6%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
5.3%
1-0
4.8%
2-0
4.2%
0-3
4.0%
2-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).