Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.2%
Nacional
28.9%
Draw
30.9%
Vitória Guimarães
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Nacional
vs
1.12
Vitória Guimarães
Markets
BTTS49.9%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.543.7%
Over 3.522.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.3%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).