Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.6%
Dortmund
21.7%
Draw
14.7%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
2.04
Dortmund
vs
0.88
Mainz
Markets
BTTS51.6%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.555.8%
Over 3.533.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
1-1
10.4%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
4.4%
1-2
4.3%
0-1
4.1%
4-0
3.9%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).