Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Accrington
26.1%
Draw
23.1%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Accrington
vs
0.85
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS43.0%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
1-1
12.0%
2-0
10.4%
0-0
9.8%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.2%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).