Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.5%
Real Madrid
17.1%
Draw
9.5%
Ath Bilbao
Expected Goals (xG)
2.32
Real Madrid
vs
0.70
Ath Bilbao
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.1%
1-0
11.1%
3-0
10.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.1%
4-0
5.9%
0-0
5.0%
4-1
4.1%
0-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).