Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.4%
Derby
20.1%
Draw
16.5%
Plymouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Derby
vs
0.81
Plymouth
Markets
BTTS46.1%
Over 0.594.0%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
2-0
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
3-0
7.5%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
3.9%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).