Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.8%
Cardiff
14.1%
Draw
10.0%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.53
Cardiff
vs
0.79
Burton
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.583.7%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.542.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.6%
3-0
9.8%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
6.6%
4-0
6.2%
4-1
4.9%
2-2
3.6%
0-1
3.5%
5-0
3.1%
0-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).