Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.7%
Casa Pia
32.5%
Draw
24.8%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Casa Pia
vs
0.82
Farense
Markets
BTTS39.4%
Over 0.585.2%
Over 1.559.9%
Over 2.531.8%
Over 3.513.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.0%
0-0
14.8%
1-1
14.1%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.4%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).