Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.2%
Burgos
27.5%
Draw
33.3%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Burgos
vs
1.13
Castellon
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.568.6%
Over 2.542.5%
Over 3.521.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.7%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).