Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.8%
Derby
26.4%
Draw
19.8%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Derby
vs
0.92
Luton
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.547.5%
Over 3.525.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.6%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
3-1
5.3%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.2%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).