⚽ FootballData
2 – 3
AHT: 12CSV

14 Sept 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
32.3%
Carlisle
25.5%
Draw
42.2%
Fleetwood Town

Expected Goals (xG)

1.17

Carlisle

vs
1.38

Fleetwood Town

Markets

BTTS50.9%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.571.6%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.4%
0-0
7.3%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).