Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.9%
Amorebieta
30.7%
Draw
19.3%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Amorebieta
vs
0.62
Lugo
Markets
BTTS31.8%
Over 0.583.6%
Over 1.553.6%
Over 2.526.9%
Over 3.510.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.7%
0-0
16.4%
1-1
11.9%
2-0
11.6%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.1%
3-0
4.6%
1-2
3.7%
0-2
3.1%
3-1
2.8%
2-2
2.2%
4-0
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).