Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.2%
Las Palmas
28.3%
Draw
21.5%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Las Palmas
vs
0.76
Malaga
Markets
BTTS38.8%
Over 0.587.6%
Over 1.561.3%
Over 2.534.4%
Over 3.515.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.7%
0-0
12.4%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
10.9%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.3%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.7%
3-1
3.6%
0-2
3.6%
2-2
3.1%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).