Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.1%
Maritimo
27.9%
Draw
25.0%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Maritimo
vs
0.83
Tondela
Markets
BTTS39.9%
Over 0.588.3%
Over 1.561.4%
Over 2.534.9%
Over 3.516.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.1%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.7%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.4%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
1-3
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).