Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.3%
Alaves
28.0%
Draw
16.7%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Alaves
vs
0.60
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS33.4%
Over 0.585.9%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.531.1%
Over 3.513.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.3%
0-0
14.1%
2-0
13.0%
1-1
11.4%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
7.8%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
3.5%
1-2
3.5%
0-2
2.6%
2-2
2.3%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).