Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.4%
Exeter
25.5%
Draw
24.0%
Burton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Exeter
vs
0.84
Burton
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.564.0%
Over 2.538.3%
Over 3.518.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
1-1
11.6%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
10.2%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
4.7%
3-1
4.0%
0-2
3.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).