Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →5.6%
Estrela
11.6%
Draw
82.9%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.57
Estrela
vs
2.73
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS40.1%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.563.9%
Over 3.541.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.8%
0-3
12.6%
0-1
10.4%
0-4
8.6%
1-2
7.8%
1-3
7.1%
1-1
5.5%
1-4
4.8%
0-5
4.7%
0-0
3.5%
1-5
2.6%
1-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).