Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →14.1%
Sheffield Weds
23.8%
Draw
62.2%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Sheffield Weds
vs
1.85
Derby
Markets
BTTS46.0%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.7%
0-2
12.5%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.2%
0-3
7.7%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
4.7%
2-1
4.0%
2-2
3.7%
0-4
3.6%
1-4
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).