Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.7%
Birmingham
28.2%
Draw
23.2%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Birmingham
vs
0.94
Luton
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
9.8%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).