Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.4%
Pacos Ferreira
24.3%
Draw
41.3%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Pacos Ferreira
vs
1.47
Arouca
Markets
BTTS55.7%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.552.6%
Over 3.530.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.7%
2-0
5.4%
1-3
4.3%
3-1
3.4%
0-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).