Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.7%
Burton
28.5%
Draw
33.8%
Stevenage
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Burton
vs
0.97
Stevenage
Markets
BTTS39.0%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.558.5%
Over 2.532.5%
Over 3.514.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.1%
0-1
14.1%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
12.3%
2-0
7.3%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-0
2.5%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).