Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.6%
Ceuta
24.6%
Draw
40.8%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Ceuta
vs
1.51
Malaga
Markets
BTTS58.1%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.555.0%
Over 3.532.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.5%
2-0
5.3%
1-3
4.4%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).