Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.3%
Plymouth
23.0%
Draw
30.7%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Plymouth
vs
1.21
Luton
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.575.4%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.8%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
5.6%
0-0
5.3%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).