Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.4%
Logrones
26.8%
Draw
14.8%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Logrones
vs
0.57
Lugo
Markets
BTTS32.7%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.559.1%
Over 2.532.2%
Over 3.514.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.6%
2-0
13.9%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.8%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
3.7%
1-2
3.1%
4-0
2.4%
2-2
2.2%
0-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).