Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.3%
Almeria
16.3%
Draw
8.4%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Almeria
vs
0.61
Lugo
Markets
BTTS40.8%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.555.1%
Over 3.532.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.5%
1-0
12.8%
3-0
11.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-1
7.7%
3-1
6.7%
4-0
6.2%
0-0
5.5%
4-1
3.8%
0-1
3.5%
5-0
2.8%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).