Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.3%
Preston
30.9%
Draw
25.8%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Preston
vs
0.76
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS34.9%
Over 0.584.6%
Over 1.554.7%
Over 2.528.2%
Over 3.511.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.5%
0-0
15.4%
1-1
12.6%
0-1
12.4%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
5.0%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
2.7%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).